Virtual currency including bitcoin BTC is a zero-sum game 2017/11/23 Bitcoin unit price has more than 8200 US dollars, Last year the price $ 600 rose only 1300% at around = 13X What is zero-sum game? The sum of the money earner and the person losing the money equals 0 Similar to the law of conservation of energy, there is a conserved quantity of physical values ​​such as cash and wealth If someone made a million virtual currency investment, then there must be lost -1 million Plus + 1 million and minus -100= zero, because the intrinsic value of virtual currency = 0 The same is true of the short-term investment in the stock market speculation, in a short period of time can not increase a lot of cash out of thin air Because cash is a "conservation volume" of similar mass conservation, it is impossible to increase without margin in a closed system Some people make a dollar will lead to someone to accompany a dollar, so if someone said the stock market bubble plummeted magical disappeared XXX That is because he does not know the stock market, wealth has never disappeared out of thin air, the stock market has never evaporated, but was transferred ,只是散戶的資金被轉移了到了專業投資人和專業投資機構手上, Only retail funds have been transferred to the hands of professional investors and professional investment institutions Then you would say that the "total market value" before and after a plunge in stock prices actually diminished那麼你會說股價暴跌前和暴跌後「總市值」的確減少了阿? 怎會沒有憑空減少呢 The so-called total market value is only the price per share * number of shares = total market capitalization所謂的總市值只不過是每股價格*每股數量=總市值 But this "quantity per share is a conserved quantity" is a concept of stock但是這個「每股數量是一個守恆量」是一種存量的概念 However, the current circulation in the market is very small compared to the stock, and "the price is determined by the flow" instead of the stock但是市場上當下的流通量相比存量是非常微小的,而「價格是被流量決定的」而不是存量決定的 That is, the funds in the delivery account of the stock market are still "conserved

" Only the retail cash is transferred to the professional investors也就是股市交割帳戶的資金依然是「守恆量」只是散戶的現金被轉移到專業投資人身上 Suppose there are 100 individuals in the stock market that 100 yuan 100* 100 = 10000 yuan of funds假設有100個人在股市裡存100元 那種共就有100*100=10000元資金 However, the price is the marginal price determined by the "price last purchased"但是價格是由「最後一個人購買的價格」決定的邊際價格 The first person took out 100 yuan to buy the number of X units of the stock, a total of 100 / X = liquidity in the market第一個人拿出100元購買數量X單位的股票, 總共有100/X=流通量在市場上 The second person to come up with a 100 yuan purchase is willing to pay a 20% premium that is to say the price rose by 20%第二個人拿出100元購買 願意出 20%的溢價購買也就是說價格上漲了20% But his 100 yuan can only buy 100 / 12X quantity because the price has risen, then rose another 30%但是他的100元只能購買100/12X的數量因為價格上漲了,後來又上漲了30% The third person to buy 100 yuan he can only buy 100 / (12 * 13 * X) the number, then rose another 50%第三個人購買100元 他只能購買100/(1

2*13*X)的數量,後來又上漲50% The fourth person to buy 100 yuan he can only buy 100 / (12 * 13 * 15 * X) quantity第四個人購買100元 他只能購買100/(1

2*13*15*X)的數量 To the fifth person to buy the hands of 100 yuan, assuming the bubble broke到了第五個人手上又購買了100元,假設泡沫破掉了 However, the "cash stock" in the market did not diminish at this time, but the people who purchased earlier were buying at a low price但是這時候市場上的「現金存量」並沒有減少 ,只是早期購買的人是以低價購買 The price will continue to rise just caused by traffic the last person's marginal purchasing power determines the last price價格會不斷升高只是流量造成的最後一個人的邊際購買力決定最後一棒價格 You can see that the fourth person was already buying at a much higher price than the first buyer 12 * 13 * 15 times你可以看到第四個人當時已經以遠高於第一個購買者12*1

3*15倍的價格在購買 But his same $ 100 fund can buy less than the first person但是他的同樣的100元資金能夠購買的購買量是比第一個人更少的 But all money-making people add up to losing money = 0 This is the "zero-sum game" gambling game但是所有賺錢的人和賠錢的人相加=0 這就是「零和博弈」的賭博遊戲 Therefore, the total market value is virtual, with the concept of currency banking or similar analysis will be found所以總市值是虛擬的,以貨幣銀行學或類似概念來分析就會發現 100 yuan * 100 man= 10,000 yuan Cash is like the central bank's monetary base or high-energy currency100元*100人=10000元現金就好比是央行的基礎貨幣或高能貨幣 That 12 and 13 times the 15 times higher price just like the "money multiplier" like the "total market value" to enlarge那1

2 和13倍 15倍的追價 就好像「貨幣乘數」一樣把「總市值」給放大了 This time the first person to make a big purchase, the second person to buy a small profit這時候第一個購買的人大賺, 第二個購買的人小賺 The third person to buy a small compensation, the fourth and fifth to buy compensation第三個購買的人小賠 , 第四和第五個購買的人大賠 The sum of these five individuals cash, or equal to 10,000 did not disappear把這5個人的現金相加, 還是等於10000元沒有消失 Wealth has never disappeared, he has just been transferred財富從來就不會憑空消失 ,他只是被轉移了 Continued speculation Bitcoin and similar things will eventually lead to a market bubble and scam不斷炒作比特幣和類似的東西最終會引來一個龐式泡沫和騙局 Causing financial risks, the central bank and financial regulators (such as the FSC, etc) will eventually be supervised引起金融風險,央行和金融監管機構(如金管會這類)會最終一定會出手監管 I am not saying that block refining is worthless, but many people are not buying bitcoin for optimistic blockchain technology我不是說區塊煉技術沒有價值,只是很多人並不是因為看好區塊鍊技術而購買比特幣 That is because bitcoin has risen from $ 10 to $ 8,000 and many people want to speculate in price increases那是因為比特幣從10美元漲到8000美元,許多人想要進行投機造成的價格上漲 This is an unfair pangu bubble scam, which will lead to early make-up people to make big profits, while those who have recently entered the party lose 這是一種不公平的龐市泡沫騙局,會導致早期購買的人脫手之後大賺,而晚近入的人大賠 And most important bitcoin is not a "decentralized currency"—-還有很重要的第二點 比特幣根本不是去中心化貨幣—- Because blockchain technology, although "early can be sub-type on the Internet approach"因為區塊鍊技術雖然「早期能夠在網路上分散式處理」的方式 But the beginning is to use CPU mining, and later with the GPU later in the FPGA (programmable logic circuit)但一開始是用CPU挖礦 ,後來是用GPU 在後來用FPGA(可程式邏輯電路) Then later became a more efficient ASIC mining machine to mine,再到後來就變成效率更高的ASIC礦機來挖礦, This professional equipment is not PC and ordinary home computer can afford, only by a professional company to mine

這種專業設備根本不是PC和一般家用電腦能夠負擔,只能交由專業的公司來挖礦。 The bitcoin pool of ASIC large-scale centralized computing so that the risk becomes high而比特幣礦池的ASIC大規模集中運算讓風險變高 Therefore, "bitcoin is not a decentralized currency," but a concentrated currency concentrated in large mining companies所以「比特幣不是去中心化的貨幣」,而是算力集中在大型挖礦企業中的集中式貨幣 Again, the cost of electricity does not support bitcoin mining in home computers再來是電力成本也不支持比特幣在家用電腦中挖礦 Electricity costs are high in many countries For example, Germany's KWH unit price per kWh is 10 times higher than in Iceland許多國家的電能成本高 ,例如德國每度電KWH單價比冰島高出10倍 This will eventually lead to the emergence of economies of scale and centralized mining machine trend這也會導致挖礦機最終出現規模經濟和集中化趨勢 ETH is more suitable for GPU mining, even if the Ethernet access ETH is not a bit-like than the SHA-256 algorithm即使是以太訪ETH並不是類似比特比以SHA-256算法處理,Ethash更適合GPU挖礦 But ultimately, ETH is also unable to compete with professional miners for its power cost advantages但是ETH最終在電力成本優勢上也是無法與專業的礦商競爭 And everyone can increase the supply of production will reduce the price of the currency and reduce the supply, which is determined by the virtual currency algorithm而人人都能生產供給增加會降低貨幣的價格和供給量降低,這是由虛擬貨幣的算法決定的 But at the end of the increase in force will reduce the money supply, so this is ultimately a very unfair zero-sum game of the game但總算力增加就會減少貨幣供應,所以這最終還是一場極不公平零和博弈的遊戲