Hi, I'm Mike Maloney, thank you all for being here I made this video because I think there is something very big, and very dangerous that it will happen very quickly soon

And I want there to be as many people as possible to be prepared This is the first time in history when a "total speculative bubble" is presented In the year 2000 it happened to the stock exchange In 2008 it happened to the stock exchange and the real estate sector This time it will happen at the stock exchange, the real estate sector, and Bond The three sectors are all three linked in the biggest speculative bubble in history

When this happens it will be devastating for many, but not necessarily for you Today we will talk about how to survive the next four years The speech will have nothing to do with politics, the speech is only financial and economic If it's the first time you see these videos, I'm Mike Maloney I wrote a bestseller on how to invest in precious metals

We did a world tour with Robert Kiyosaki, who wrote the book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" We talked to audiens of all kinds, explaining how the economy affects everyone I also made a series of videos called "The Hidden Secrets of Money", which talks about the history of money all over the world Explaining jointly the economic facts that were taking place at the time Governments continue to make the same stupid mistakes in a cyclical way in history

And this affects your everyday life In 2005 there were indices that clearly indicated that there would be an explosion of the speculative bubble on the stock exchange and in real estate That's when I started to warn people, so that he could get ready in time The same warnings I gave it for the whole 2005, 2006 and 2007 Well, do you know something? The same indices are reoccurring today identical

Which tells us that we have to prepare for a next big event The way these indices are presented tells us that there will be less time to prepare It will happen very soon It will be the first time that there will be a "Total Speculative Bubble" It will cover the stock exchange, real estate, credit and debt, and bonds

We will therefore talk about technological risks, about geopolitical risks, but above all about how to prepare in a general sense We then present the evidence, and let's look at it Let's start from the stock exchange sector, of this total bubble We will present a series of graphs, but they will be simple, so stay with us These data were collected by Robert Shiller from Yale University

He decided to get back until 1880 It is the relationship between the price of the stock and the earnings of the listed company He recomposed the S & P500, putting together all the major US companies, listed in those years, going back to 1880 The relationship between the share price and the company's actual earnings is a good way to understand if the action is overvalued If the ratio is four, five, six, ten times, the price is a good price

if this ratio exceeds fifteen times the action is expensive, if it exceeds the winds it means that we are facing a bubble And if we look here today we are at a ratio of almost thirty times between the value of the action and the amount of the gains The only times when this index had such a high value was in 1929, the year of that great stock market crash, and in the period 1999-2000 that was the year in which the Nasdaq collapsed

The value is even higher than when the stock market collapsed in 2007 We are therefore inside a super bubble, and then in 2007 all the financial markets collapsed We are therefore on higher levels, than we saw in 2007 In this situation the "Margin Debt" is presented People who buy shares with loan currency can receive what is called the "Margin Call"

If the collateral given for that investment goes down too much because the value of the shares falls, then the broker can ask for even more interest, to be more comfortable in lending money The Margin Debt therefore goes hand in hand with the Complecency If people find themselves comfortable, and do not perceive the risk of borrowing, they throw themselves even further into the abyss Today we are at the top of the Margin Debt, this is the S & P500, and this is the amount of currency that Traders are borrowing With respect to the possibility of credit they have, concerning how much currency they have in their accounts

At this moment we are really at the highest levels Margin Debt is a kind of economic index This instead is the volatility index It tells us if investors are satisfied or nervous When there is "Complecency" they are not able to do the "Pricing In" of the risks of the events that happen in the market

And today we are at the levels of 2007, when the volatility indices dropped to a minimum of ten Today we are at the same levels of 2007, when investors thought that everything was going well, and that it could go on forever So the "Complecency" today is at its maximum, the perception of risk is at its lowest This is the lever of the Margin Debt as a percentage of our economy The value is at the highest ever

This is an indication of danger, because if there will be a collapse of the stock exchange, it will be very fast, because a lot of Margin Call will develop The volumes of Margin Call would force investors and Trader to untie a lot of investments, because in need of currency, they have to liquidate They have to liquidate their portfolios, to give back to the Brokers This is what causes a speeding up of the collapse This is therefore an index not only of the speed of collapse, but also of its violence

One of the writers I usually read is John Hussman (Hussman Fund) He is a great analyst of the basic parameters, he makes a technical analysis for the production of models What usually interests him is the fundamental health of the economy and the stock exchange He recently wrote an article entitled "Exhaustion Gaps, and the Fear of Missing Out" What is characterizing the market today is precisely the fear of not "being part of the party"

People see for example the neighbor making money, and they too want to get on that train To understand this I have to show you what a Gap is like Because he actually does not explain in his article what a market gap is When an action is exchanged within a day, and the next day opens at a higher level, than the one reached at the close of the day before and its value does not go back down to the values ​​of the day before, it produces gaps [NdT Gaps] like these These voids are a sign of something interesting that is happening, as evidenced by a study on the Dow Jones Industrial (30 titles), these securities are analyzed separately, and the study has found that eventually the market finds a way to cover these gaps, going down These vacuums here are a 91% or 92% chance that eventually the market will fill them

John Hussman found that when these vacuums exceed half of 1%, within a maximum fluctuation of 2% of the S & P500, and in this chart it happens like this, these voids are a sign of market fatigue, and of the volumes of currency injected by this group of non-expert people, who enter the maximum levels, and that now they are running out of their ability to inject even more currency into the market Hussman has precisely developed this index of voids that develop in a market with maximum fluctuations of 2%, which would indicate that the market has now reached its maximum But the S & P500 goes up to the 50s, and the Dow Jones Industrial until 1929 Hussman added further parameters: most of the Advisors must have positive predictions, and the Shiller index must be above 18 We are currently at 29

By doing this we can see that the index presents a Warning just before the collapse of 1929 Then there is another one just before the fall of the sixties Then again for the same phenomenon that happened in the seventies In these cases the market has lost almost 50% A loss that could be avoided by analyzing this data here

Just before the 1987 crash, this index could have suggested to people how to get out of it Then the index gives the same warnings between 1999 and 2000, when there was the collapse of the Nasdaq It's showing up again just before 2007, and it's giving us the same signals now, only now that it's the fifth time it has warned us, in the last few months This situation is therefore identical to all the others We are at the height of the speculative bubble, and people think that we can go on like this forever

Market indices show signs of deterioration, and the price of shares is largely overestimated The beginning of the recession is there to come, and everything is absolutely identical to other times The only answer is investments in gold and silver Last time, if people had invested in gold and silver, even if they had done it a year too soon, with shares that would have earned another 10% they would have earned, however, because the collapse of the stock market was 62%, while gold rose significantly With a collapse during the collapse of the bag, precisely because the Brokers who had both the ones, had to sell gold and silver, because of the Margin Call that they received on the other side of their wallet But gold eventually performed more than 40%, while the stock market and shares lost more than 60% The first rule according to Warren Buffett is: "Do not lose money"

While the second rule is: "Do not forget the first" The importance of this rule is due to the fact that if you lose 50%, then you have to regain 100%, just to get back on par But actually getting 100% earnings is very difficult, it's not at all an easy thing to do Recovering a loss is a very difficult thing, now it's time to do everything not to lose The next speculative bubble we examine is real estate

In 2008-2009 it broke out in the United States and Great Britain Instead in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and China, there was only a small withdrawal, and then resumed his run This is an article by Macleans, which says that the Canadian speculative bubble seems strangely familiar In this article we talk about the collapse of the shares of Home Capital, subject of Canadian mortgages, after requiring a loan of $ 2 billion That loan is nothing but a Bail Out disguised by the Canadian Central Bank

This loan will be guaranteed, but what will happen if the whole market collapses? Virtually the Bail Out has already begun, and will exceed these two billion dollars What is happening is that there is already an escape from Home Capital Already 600 million have been withdrawn from deposits Which made their accounting books not very solid These are the data of the Canadian real estate sector: these are the prices of the properties compared to the wealth of the buyers of the same

This is a kind of reliability / convenience index In the United States we see the collapse here, while in Canada there is a small withdrawal, and then the restart And the peak of real estate reached today in Canada is higher than in the United States and in Great Britain in 2007 This event will be very negative What we see is the price index of the houses

The first was the index that told us that Canadians are in trouble buying a house, if it is a new house In fact, as far as prices are concerned, they first collapsed, then started to rise again, and now they are inside a super bubble So what you understand is that these bubbles can start from countries like Canada, New Zealand, Australia, China, and then they can hit the whole world In reality, the recession should have already hit us, and then the phenomenon will affect both the stock exchange and the real estate sector Because the real estate sector in the United States is already fully in a speculative bubble

These are still data from Robert Shiller, who has recompiled house price data up to 1880 When the price of houses is reasonable, in comparison with the economy in general, these lines are flat, because the data is indexed But when prices are either too high, or too low compared to the economy, like this where they collapsed because of the great depression, while at this point we see a small bubble during the '60s and' 70s, this is the super bubble of 2007, which did not even allow a withdrawal to a reasonable value, because then he immediately returned to a bubble well in these cases there are data like those of today, which we have only seen in 2005 – 2006 – 2007, in a period of time that goes up to 1880! This tells us that both the stock exchange and the real estate will collapse in the next recession There is such a sense of déjà-vu, compared to what happened last time If we replace the name of Home Capital (Canada), with that of Northern Rock (Great Britain), or Country Wide (United States), we see that those subjects got into trouble, the deposits were withdrawn, the Margin Call started, the Bail Out started, and all this caused the global financial crisis in 2008 to cascade The same identical phenomenology is happening to the Canadian Home Capital If you want you can check it in my book on page 103, where I talked about the case of Bear Stearns default, and the bail out waterfall that produced, along with the production of an immense currency mass

and my mother if all that happened way I wrote that book in April 2008, it was printed in August 2008, then the Bail Out came in September, and before the end of the year, currency production doubled With the second Quantitative Easing doubled again, with the third Quantitative Easing doubled again, and then it reached the production of 4

2 trillion dollars, when a few years before there were only 08 trilliards For these reasons today there is a need to protect ourselves, and the answer even then was: precious metals! This is a chart that goes from 2007 to today, you see in blue the stock index that collapses, and then tries to bounce up, Today it's good (sic!), but if you had invested in gold then, now your profits would be double, of those accrued by the S & P500 Now the part we're going to talk about is the part of the Bond bubble, which is the bubble that invests the credit / debit This chart represents the Treasury Bond market, from 1981 until today

The trend is perfect, goes like a train [NdT Bull Market] There is nothing that can be said of this trend, this Trend is perfect The only notation that can be done is that this trend has been going on for 36 years! No trend can go on like this forever In a trend like this, which is going well for so many years, towards the end we see an overvaluation compared to the economy, and that indicates that it is a bubble And in the end all the speculative bubbles burst

This chart represents the prices of bonds, which grow, and of course the value of interests instead has a graph that falls But if we do a long-term analysis, following the cycle of ups and downs, as Robert Shiller does in his analysis that starts in 1880, this is the graph that represents this phenomenon When we look at the trend at this point here, where the interests are lowered, then start again and then lower again what we notice is that the trend is symmetrical, specular The number of years that pass before and after the cycle is absolutely the same If we analyze the cycle in which we are now, which starts with a rise in interest in the '60s and' 70s, until 1982, and then with the downturn, we see that by applying the same time pattern, before and after the interest peak, the symmetrical structure provides for a bond crisis for the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 And for what concerns this long-term phenomenology of the Bond, it seems to be associated with the end of the relative monetary system In writing my book I realized that the monetary system goes into crisis every 30-40 years

The Gold Standard: until the First World War The Gold Exchange Standard between the two wars, the Bretton Woods from 1944 to 1971 And then the dollar alone as a world standard, from 1971 until today If we analyze all these monetary systems, the worst of all is precisely that today, because it arises from the ashes of the failure of the one created by the Bretton Woods agreements The crunches are clearly felt, the signs of stress are all there, but most people seem not to have noticed

The story will always be the same, they will make a G20 emergency meeting or something like that and a new world monetary system will be born When this happens, the currency crisis will correspond to the birth of the new monetary system

And if these were the steps to go from gold as a guarantee to nothing this will be the step to move from that nothing, to something new, but that will involve everyone, not just multinationals and banks What will the appearance of this collapse be? It will be a two-stage collapse

I speak of these collapses in "roller coaster" for years Like a roller coaster, there's a chain that pulls you up, and then you get to the top down as it was in 2007 The result is zero interest rates, and massive currency press These are events that destroy the economy, releasing disruptive shock waves that destroy finance and real estate In cases like the one in 2007, everyone taught us that the safe harbor was then found in US bonds

For this reason, perhaps at the beginning, the bonds will rise Interest rates will go to the lows, and we'll feel a bit safe as when a car accident happens, everyone gets out of the car to look, and then a truck comes over and invests everyone The crisis will have this two-stage trend, first the stock exchange then the real estate Everyone will say it's gone, which is fine now The Government will spread trust on the stock exchange, and then instead the crisis gets worse

This time, however, the Baby Boom generation will have no time For example, I am a middle-aged person, I am 61 years old If I lose more than half my wealth or more, I will most likely never believe in the stock exchange or property I was punished too hard When I decided to invest in the stock market in 2000, I was punished, then I did it in 2007, I was punished again, I suffered two brutal collapses when I chose real estate, I was punished in 2007 but then what happens? We have to look at episodes 6 and 7 of "Hidden Secrets of Money", to understand how our generation has been and will be hit by these repetitive crises Because this here is the final act of this bubble, and when a whole generation comes out of the purse altogether, and starts keeping the money in the checking account, well this is devastating for the circulation of the currency, we explained it in Episode 6 and 7, here we can not talk about it again

If the question is: "how do we defend ourselves against these cyclical crises with roller coasters?" The answer is a bit more complicated than the ones we have always given it is no longer just "Gold & Silver" There is a need for a new monetary system ready for the need

One already exists, it is the crypto-currencies It started with Bitcoin, then some others came I invested a bit in crypto-currencies, I did not invest much but I believe that in some way we must prepare ourselves, because if the monetary system collapses at least with the crypto-currencies there would be the possibility of making payments, even those remote long distance, just as if it were a credit card on the Internet Talking to Robert Kiyosaki about the possibility of a global and total crisis, the 5 "G" are important: [1] Ground (your home) [2] Grub (food) [3] Gas (petrol) [4] Guns (weapons) and [5] Gold (gold) To these five "G" I would add the "S" of SIlver (silver) and the "C" of Crypto-Currencies (crypto-currencies), if one wants to save in case of a total collapse of the monetary system Here the first part on the Total Speculative Bubble ends We talked about the stock exchange crisis, the real estate crisis, the bond crisis and the credit / debt crisis, and the two-stage crisis

Now let's talk about the geopolitical factor, and how all these events can even be aggravated by geopolitical risk Memories of the Cuban missile crisis come to mind And in my life I have not experienced a period of crisis worse than that The world was really on the brink of the abyss, the geopolitical risk was so high and even today the risks are really high, but today unfortunately there is another risk, which will act as a catalyst, is the technological risk In the world we live in today there are fundamental technological nodes If the Internet collapses, the whole socio-economic system collapses If you have not yet seen the movie "Zero Days", I recommend it

You can find it in Netflix, Applet Tv, Amazon The film talks about "Stuxnet", the virus said to have been made by the US government to hit the Iranian nuclear program This event happened years ago, the virus spread to a lot of computers in the world The virus had been written to identify its victims very specifically While today's viruses could give their creator the control of any computer in the world

They could affect water services, electricity services, the monetary system itself The world we live in today is even more dangerous than in the past Here we see the hacker attacks that are perpetrated at this time These are not viral attacks This is how the next war will appear, before these events affect the physical world

The response to events of this type are the 5 "G" of the first, plus the silver, because if the Internet collapses, the crypto-currencies will not be available The crypto-currencies and the block-chain are robust technologies, as soon as internet resumes they would immediately be available In these cases you can not rely only on crypto-currencies Gold and silver can be used for transactions and then food, fuel, etc are important So, as we have said several times, Gold and Silver maintain their strategic value, yet they seem to be very undervalued If we look at the last time there was a rise in the 80s, the Gold was quoted at 850, and now it is 1200, while the silver was quoted at 50, and now it is at 16! Which other entity is sold today at a lower price than it was sold in the 80s? There is none other

I started buying gold in 2002, then I started buying silver in 2003 This is the beginning of the gold market, people have started to buy it, and this is the peak that started from the year 2000 This chart compares Gold and S & P500 in the last 100 years We are here now, in a very drowsy market (NdT Bear Market), it is called "Capitulation" And that's just what we've been waiting for, it's a good sign for all intents and purposes

Finally here we are It is the third phase of a very lively market (NdT Bull Market) of gold, which I think is about to start shortly What is the sense of operating during a capitulation phase? It is buying an asset when it is less desired, and less bought You have to get on the train at the beginning, then follow all the others, the climb continues, and then you have to get off before going down the ravine Now it's the actions that are going strong, I think that train is going to go down into the ravine

When that happens, it will be Gold and Silver, going up like a missile, and I want to get on that missile The proof that at this moment Gold and Silver are very little desired and bought, and that is the right opportunity it is given by this graph that represents the valorization in dollars of gold and silver, given by the US state mint

These data are indexed annually The blue bars are gold, the gray bars are silver As you can see the sales are down in the last two years If sales in the last months of the year, continue to go as the mint tells us for the first months of the year 2017 it means that now nobody wants Gold and Silver, and that is the right time to buy But guess what not everyone ignores gold and silver Russia and China are currently the main buyers in the world And if we add India, there are months in which they buy so much, to exceed global production It means that that excess buy it from the West They buy, and we sell

They are reading the warning signs, they know what will happen, and they are preparing, for the eventuality of a change of monetary system You too must prepare yourselves, also because the price is going in some cases below the cost of production in the mine When this happens, production decreases just before the purchase starts, due to the arrival of the crisis And the only element that can govern this phase is the price So by following everything we have said so far, this crisis could hit hard, and you must protect yourself properly

We can not control what happens on the planet But we can control what happens to our investments A well organized protection system can also allow you to get out of the crisis, better than you have entered And this is where I would like to help you If you need to get more information, you can get a free copy of my book, which is an excellent way of self-learning

It contains all the information on how to invest in Gold and Silver, avoiding the traps, and avoiding being scammed How to plan the investment, and which metal to buy Can I deliver it to my home, or keep it in storage? What is the taxation for precious metals? All you need to do is send your email address, and you can immediately download a free copy of the book Or you can choose the hard copy, paying only shipping costs The book is free

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